In a nutshell: pay attention to the polls, but don’t pay too much attention to the polls.
Just a short note, mostly to give you a heads-up and to clarify some emails (that lead to phone calls) regarding what to expect from now until November 2nd.
First off, most regional and State wide campaigns aren’t looking at the Weekly Polls anymore, they’re analyzing the daily’s. Why? Talking points, last minute clarity, etc
Also, keep in mind that the polling results you’ll see in the news media aren’t necessarily the polls the campaigns are weighing. They may use something like the Mason-Dixon or Gallop as a talking point, but not in decision making.
Mason-Dixon tends to lead toward the right and gets most of their business from the media. If you’re keeping track of the National’s you need to follow Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro.
In North Carolina, I follow some of Public Policy Polling, they use IVR software, which is mostly good, but does have it’s quirks. I may be a little biased because I follow CEO Dean Debnam and have heard him speak on occasion. He, in my opinion, tries to get it right for his clients (on both sides of spectrum).
Quote: Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to think their party is headed in the right direction. But at the same time unhappy Democrats are much more likely to abandon their party at the polls this year than unhappy Republicans…from PPP.
Tis the nature of the beast.
For the real political junkies…I know you’re out there in blog land. Keep up with UNC-Chapel Hill Odum Institute for Research, Louis Harris & Associates, some WashPost polls (depending on the mood I’m in), SurveyUSA, Cook Political and Civitas.
You can set Google up to auto search all of the latest and greatest and have it delivered in your email everyday. DISCLAIMER: The Tylenol will cost extra!