Iowa is a caucus and very few people really understand it. Larry King once said that he never really understood the Iowa caucus and it is as true now as it was when King said it.
The short story is that it is a process and not just an event. Basically, it’s a ranking that goes back to the old days and the whole process will take months.
But, for brevity—this is what will happen on election night: Bernie will win by about 750 votes.
How did I come up with that number?
The short answer is I look at over 500 different things I call metrics. The metrics includes momentum, emotion, media coverage, likability/believability, candidate energy, supporter energy, organization, polling, recalculated polling and finally what I call the ‘last two week draw points’.
It’s time consuming, but I looked at all 1,681 precincts and calculate the complicated process of caucus participation.
Hillary will do well on the western side of the state and probably pick up most of what she took in 2008. I suspect she’ll pick up about 15 counties west of center.
So, even though Hillary will do well in Sioux City and the western parts in between to the center of the state – Bernie will have major support in Cedar Rapids, Davenport and all the way to Des Moines. Hillary will pick up a good portion of the northern parts of Iowa and Bernie will take a good part of the south.
Even though all this is probability and stats – things could change, but it’s highly unlikely. A deviation from the charts I use of 3-5% could put Bernie at an even greater advantage pushing him to a win by more than 1,000 votes. I preface this by saying, it all depends on how many show up for the caucus and I also have calculated a 1.385% likely hood that some Republicans may switch parties just before the caucus. (But, those numbers are insignificant)
New Hampshire is a little easier to predict. A week after Iowa, my charts have Bernie surging over Hillary by over 15-19%.
I calculate New Hampshire in a similar way I calculate all primary states. I look at approximately 50 polls and track 30 of them on a regular basis. I also look at the same metrics I mentioned above in Iowa.
New Hampshire has only ten counties and I don’t see Hillary doing well in any of them – but I do see some momentum moving her way in three.
In the end, Bernie will beat Hillary around 59-41% on election night.
Then, it’s on to Nevada where Bernie has some problems. But, the important race is really South Carolina.
The once stronghold for the Clinton campaign and according to many insiders, her firewall to Super Tuesday – Hillary does not have the lead she once had.
Although I’m still watching South Carolina – it wouldn’t surprise me in a few weeks to come back here and predict a Bernie win in South Carolina.
Why are my stats any different than others?
Well, for one thing—I take my numbers very seriously. In 2012, I was 100% accurate predicting Obama’s landslide win over Mitt Romney and I was 100% in every state and the electoral college count. Not too bad considering I predicted it on August 21, 2012—almost three months before the election.
In 2014, I predicted Sen. Kay Hagan’s loss to then NC Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis. I told this to the Chair of the NCDP, sitting in his office two months before the election.
I went on to post it on my blog a few days before the election and an NCDP op called me and asked me to take the post down. I didn’t.
The numbers are what they are—regardless of what the media or polling companies tell you.
And, this isn’t a cheering section for supporters of one candidate or another. If you want to complain about Bernie or Hillary apparently that’s what Facebook is for.