Hillary Felt the Bern – Oh, Yeah

bernie in iowaSix months ago, nobody in Iowa knew who Bernie was.  But, they knew Hillary Clinton.

Six months ago, Bernie had no money and no volunteers in Iowa.  But, Hillary did.

Six months ago, no one thought Bernie had a chance in Hell to beat Hillary.  And, pundits thought Hillary would shoo across the Iowa finish line.

Well, here we are a week before a real primary election and a lot has changed.

Hillary is feeling the Bern.  Rumor has it her team is shaking up a little. 

But, it’s not her team.  Maybe, just maybe, it’s her.

People are looking for something different.   They want a politician that feels what they feel and fights for the working class. 

Had it not been for six coin tosses and other shenanigans going on in ninety precincts, Bernie would have topped the delegate count.

Nonetheless, Bernie won – make no mistake about that.  For Bernie to start where he did and finish last night in a virtual draw is nothing shy of a miracle. 

And, smart voters who are finally voting for their own self-interest.

 

 

 

Posted in Bernie Sanders, Connections with George Fisher | Tagged | Leave a comment

DEBORAH ROSS – Screaming clean energy and takes fracking money

debora rossWhy is nobody talking about this: Deborah Ross is screaming clean energy when a lot of her political money is coming from fracking?   And, why is no one credible enough in the media pointing this out?  Maybe the better question is why are they turning a blind eye?  

Somebody, please explain to me why people vote against their own self-interest.

That’s a rhetorical question: I think I already know the answer.

Last night, I went to a Kevin Griffin rally at a venue in Raleigh.  And, for the first time, in a long time—I’ve actually heard a candidate answer real questions with real answers.

I’ve also heard Deborah Ross and Chris Rey from time to time, so I feel comfortable making this comparison.

  1. There’s a big difference in a candidate depending on the office he/she wants to win.

I’ve often seen congressional candidates talk about the ills of voter ID, and the like, but unless they’re going to the NCGA—there is not much they can do about it, except state an opinion.  Frankly, everyone has an opinion – I’m looking for someone who can stop it with a vote.

  1. For the past six or so months, I’ve heard Chris Rey and Deborah Ross talk about poverty and poor people in North Carolina.  I say that tongue-in-cheek because half the time I’m really not sure what the hell Deborah is saying or trying to get across.   To me she’s a typical ACLU lawyer and politically blessed by the likes of the DSCC, the NCDP and Lilian’s List who think it’s their turn.

Their turn at what? Kay Hagan’s campaign was a disaster and let’s face it—if she spent more time listening to the needs of Black people she might have won that election.

I like to see all minority candidates get an equal shot in their political bids.  But, I can’t help but feel this is a mismatch when both the NCDP and the DSCC are working behind the scenes to get Deborah Ross elected.

  1. In their first pubic square-off on January 29th, a Spanish television station streamed the event and got over one million hits.

Not only does that tell me that minorities are hungry for change in Congress but that they are also engaged.

For the DSCC and the NCDP it may be all about the money but for the people—it’s about the issues.  So, who do you trust?

Here are the issues I’m thinking about:

  • As ACLU director, Deborah Ross lobbied against the Sex Offender Registry.  She wanted to provide “counseling” instead of having them register their address so parents could feel a little safer knowing where known offenders were living.

  • And it surprises me that Deborah Ross is screaming her support for clean energy when a lot of her money is coming from fracking.  Go figure.

  • Can you imagine her actually winning?  Did the DSCC vet her as well as they should have or is this another Sarah Palin in the making?

  • The  Republicans will have a field day with her if she wins.  Seriously, she’s the best thing Richard Burr could ever hope for.

  1. From my standpoint it’s a simple issue.  Jobs, jobs and more jobs.
kevin and alishia speedy

Candidate for U.S. Senate, Kevin Griffin in Raleigh NC talking with a group of voters.

There’s only one candidate who knows what it takes to create jobs.  He done it in North Carolina and he can help formulate the message in the U.S. Senate: Kevin Griffin.

Don’t start thinking that I heard Griffin speak last night and now I’m all fired up over what he said.  I’ve done my research on this guy.  And, frankly, it’s the opposite—I’ve heard what the other candidates have said (and haven’t said) and I’m disappointed in the others.

I want somebody who can stand up for people who otherwise wouldn’t have a voice in DC.  I want someone who knows what it takes to live in this economy.

I want to vote for someone who knows damn good and well how hard it is out there to make a living.  And, to me—that candidate is Kevin Griffin.

It may also help to remind readers that Griffin can win against Richard Burr – according to a recent PPP poll.   And, as sad as it may be for some readers—Deborah Ross can’t win against Richard Burr.  The numbers aren’t there and it’s just not in the cards the way the political landscape is in North Carolina right now.

edited @18:00 2-1-2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Connections with George Fisher, Deborah Ross, Kevin Griffin for US Senate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Bernie will win Iowa and New Hampshire

Bernie 1Iowa is a caucus and very few people really understand it.  Larry King once said that he never really understood the Iowa caucus and it is as true now as it was when King said it.  

The short story is that it is a process and not just an event.  Basically, it’s a ranking that goes back to the old days and the whole process will take months. 

But, for brevity—this is what will happen on election night: Bernie will win by about 750 votes.

How did I come up with that number?

The short answer is I look at over 500 different things I call metrics.  The metrics includes momentum, emotion, media coverage, likability/believability, candidate energy, supporter energy, organization, polling, recalculated polling and finally what I call the ‘last two week draw points’.

It’s time consuming, but I looked at all 1,681 precincts and calculate the complicated process of caucus participation.   

Hillary will do well on the western side of the state and probably pick up most of what she took in 2008.  I suspect she’ll pick up about 15 counties west of center. 

So, even though Hillary will do well in Sioux City and the western parts in between to the center of the state – Bernie will have major support in Cedar Rapids, Davenport and all the way to Des Moines.  Hillary will pick up a good portion of the northern parts of Iowa and Bernie will take a good part of the south. 

Even though all this is probability and stats – things could change, but it’s highly unlikely.   A deviation from the charts I use of 3-5% could put Bernie at an even greater advantage pushing him to a win by more than 1,000 votes.  I preface this by saying, it all depends on how many show up for the caucus and I also have calculated a 1.385% likely hood that some Republicans may switch parties just before the caucus.  (But, those numbers are insignificant)

New Hampshire is a little easier to predict.  A week after Iowa, my charts have Bernie surging over Hillary by over 15-19%.

I calculate New Hampshire in a similar way I calculate all primary states.  I look at approximately 50 polls and track 30 of them on a regular basis.  I also look at the same metrics I mentioned above in Iowa. 

New Hampshire has only ten counties and I don’t see Hillary doing well in any of them – but I do see some momentum moving her way in three.

In the end, Bernie will beat Hillary around 59-41% on election night.

Then, it’s on to Nevada where Bernie has some problems.  But, the important race is really South Carolina.

The once stronghold for the Clinton campaign and according to many insiders, her firewall to Super Tuesday – Hillary does not have the lead she once had.

Although I’m still watching South Carolina – it wouldn’t surprise me in a few weeks to come back here and predict a Bernie win in South Carolina. 

Why are my stats any different than others?

Well, for one thing—I take my numbers very seriously.  In 2012, I was 100% accurate predicting Obama’s landslide win over Mitt Romney and I was 100% in every state and the electoral college count.  Not too bad considering I predicted it on August 21, 2012—almost three months before the election.

In 2014, I predicted Sen. Kay Hagan’s loss to then NC Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis.   I told this to the Chair of the NCDP, sitting in his office two months before the election.

I went on to post it on my blog a few days before the election and an NCDP op called me and asked me to take the post down.  I didn’t.

The numbers are what they are—regardless of what the media or polling companies tell you.

And, this isn’t a cheering section for supporters of one candidate or another.  If you want to complain about Bernie or Hillary apparently that’s what Facebook is for.

Posted in Connections with George Fisher | 1 Comment

Kevin Griffin – A Candidate Worth Your Vote

 kevin griffin with dogA snapshot of Kevin Griffin with his Boxer Ginny

  • A father
  • A business owner
  • A candidate for United States Senate from North Carolina
  • He is not a traditional career politician
  • And, he is not a lawyer.

January 29, 2016—Kevin Griffin is a name you may not have heard of, but he’s running for Senate against three other candidates.  What makes it more interesting is that Deborah Ross, the front runner and favorite child of the NCDP has already been endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. [see: Deborah Ross endorsement draws fire from opponents, GOP] Griffin’s campaign criticized the DSCC’s move, saying the endorsement “undermines the will of North Carolina Democratic primary voters.” (Quote from N&O)

I would take it one step further and say for the NCDP and DSCC, it’s all about the money.

So, why even talk about any other candidate since the Democratic elite has made their decision?  Even though a new PPP polls shows that Deborah Ross would lose to Richard Burr if the election were held today.

Well, for one thing: the last time I looked, voters actually elected candidates, not the NCDP or the DSCC.   And, voters will have a definite dilemma when it comes to Ross.

Deborah Ross, as the head of the ACLU, lobbied against the Sex Offender Registry citing:

The ACLU believes lawmakers’ support is merely political grandstanding and that the bill doDeborah Rossesn’t really get to the heart of the problem. North Carolina ACLU Director Deborah Ross believes the bill will give people a false sense of security. She believes it will divert people’s attention from where most child abuse happens– in the home.

The ACLU would rather see more tax dollars going into counseling offenders than the registry. Parents would like to see the bill go further, becoming retroactive to include offenders prior to 1996.” –according to a WRAL report.

Really? Is this the best the NCDP and the DSCC can do? Interestingly, N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper, who is running for Governor, taunts the Sex Offender Registry as a positive achievement.   [see FOX8 article where Cooper promotes the Sex Offender Android App]

If you’re willing to turn a blind eye and a deaf ear to the Democratic elite, and if you’re willing to actually vote for a candidate who is in your best interest—here is your chance to dismiss the hoopla spewing out of North Carolina Democratic coffers.  For your consideration, here is a look at the Democratic candidate for United States Senate from North Carolina: Kevin Griffin.

Who is Kevin Griffin?
Griffin is a businessman from Durham.  He’s the President and CEO of AVANT Group, LLC.  AVANT is a staffing agency based in the Triangle and serves companies looking for temp to hire employees as far out as the Triad.  You can check out his About Page here.

But, Kevin’s ‘about webpage’ doesn’t tell the whole story—or even part of it.  Griffin has helped people find jobs from all walks of life: from those without high school diplomas to a Ph.D. looking for a CEO position.

What impresses me about Griffin?
Kevin Griffin knows what a gallon of milk cost, a dozen eggs and how much it takes to feed a family.  He also knows the price of gas and he works with low-income people who have transportation and childcare problems as they either enter or reenter the workforce.

“Most people want to work,” Griffin said, in an interview a few days ago.  “In North Carolina we see a worsening of the skill gap—people that are great workers with a good solid work history, but who don’t have the particular skills [for jobs] that are open in their particular area.  So, we look at different ways to try to facilitate their skill growth; whether it’s through actual physical skill or educational outlets to bring them up to where they can be proficient in those positions.”

“I support a minimum wage increase.  If you’re a millionaire, it’s hard to understand what it’s like to live on $11 or $12 dollars an hour because most of them have never experienced it—let alone North Carolina’s minimum wage of $7.25 per hour.”

Griffin states that there is no other candidate running for United States Senate who has the day-to-day contact with real people looking for work as he has.  Griffin goes on to say, “About 95 to 98 percent of the jobs we place are temp-to-hire—so we are unique in that position.  It’s a great thing because we’re able to help in that career path.”

kevin griffin with enployee
In a recent upworthy.com post by the National Low Income Housing Coalition it takes a North Carolina worker over 75 working hours per week to afford a two-bedroom apartment.

Why the Government is disconnected from reality.
Griffin related a story of a man who came into his staffing office looking for work: he had a wife and child.  His wife was making $14 dollars an hour and Kevin found the gentleman a job making around $13 dollars an hour.  The man had to turn it down because if he had taken the job his subsidized childcare would have been discontinued and their childcare would have cost $15 dollars an hour.

Griffin has never run for public office before—as a first-time candidate, Griffin says, “I decided I wanted to run for Senate in September of 2015. I know how business works. I want to make a difference.” And, interestingly, he’s not a lawyer for those of us voters who think there are already too many lawyers in DC.

Despite not having a political acumen, Griffin says he is qualified to be the next Senator from North Carolina.   And, after judging the politicians we have to choose from, having someone without professional political experience seems refreshing.  Unlike Deborah Ross, Kevin Griffin has no master to serve—which mean he has the ability to work for North Carolina and not special interest or elite Democrats.

“I’m in an environment every day where I have to negotiate between parties.  I have to keep me candidates happy and negotiate salary. I think I’m in a better position than Richard Burr or any other candidate because I deal with the full range of the population in North Carolina.  My theory on management is ‘how do we solve the problem’ as opposed to treating the symptom.”

Griffin goes on to say, “It’s the open conversation.  I’ve talked to so many people all over this state and I understand what the issues are.

Griffin’s commitment to minorities.
Kevin Griffin has both African Americans and Latinos on his staff either in paid or volunteer positions and he plans to add more as resources allow.  Griffin goes on to state, “our campaign is mostly female and we is trying to build out the rest of our team by mirroring the diversity in our area.”

Griffin on immigration:
Griffin pointed me to his website where he has filled out a host of questionnaires from various organizations.   But, here is specifically what he said about immigration.

If elected, would you support comprehensive immigration reform and oppose efforts to enact enforcement-only legislation? YES. 

If elected, would you support legislation that provides a timely and certain roadmap to citizenship? YES

If elected, would you support immigration reform that protects all workers by establishing an independent bureau that makes rational assessments of short-term and long-term labor market shortages and makes recommendations on levels of new entry into the workforce based on actual labor market needs? YES

If elected, would you support efforts to reform existing temporary worker programs by enhancing workplace protections, strengthening oversight and enforcement and creating new methods to investigate and penalize employers who abuse workers? YES. 

If elected, would you oppose measures to defund or otherwise block deferred action and other much needed protections for immigrant workers? YES

If elected, would you support legislation to de-criminalize immigrant communities and draw clear lines of separation between immigration enforcement and law enforcement? YES. 

On allowing Syrian refugees into the United States:
“We have to a have a vetting process from a security standpoint.  But, the thing is: that is an individual in need.  But, over the long run we must create a resolution in their own country.”

Griffin on Ed Snowden and spying on U.S. citizens
“There should not be a free hand in surveillance; it should be under court order.  Americans have an expectation and a right to privacy unless a Judge finds overriding circumstances that would give cause for surveillance.”

Regarding Edward Snowden
“The information he provided is in the public interest to know.  But, I do think the way he went about it hurt the United States.  But, I’m not sure what other avenues he had to get the information out.”

“The United States goes to great lengths to protect whistle blowers, but he went beyond that by going to WikiLeaks.”

Griffin stopped short of calling Snowden a traitor but he did say that if he were to come back to America there should be consequences.  “I don’t think treason would be an appropriate charge should he ever come back to the United States.  The question becomes where the line Snowden crossed is and how far beyond that line did he cross.”

Griffin on ACA:
In general, it’s a great idea with poor implementation.  We should force states that have not expanded Medicaid to do so in an effort to provide accessible medical access that is cost effective.”

Griffin stated that he had healthcare through the Affordable Care Act.

“If we have Medicaid on the front end and extended care on the back end for those who reach retirement age before they turn sixty-five—which is the progression of how things are going, we would be better off.”

Kevin Griffin said that as Senator he would not vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act. It’s in place and it needs to stay in place—it just needs to get better.”

Griffin on the United States Supreme Court.
Because the Senate confirms SCOTUS nominees, I asked Griffin his thoughts on what he would look for in a potential Justice.

“First is understanding of people and understanding of the law.  A Justice needs to understand the extent to which laws affect the lives of people.” Griffin cited a recent case on fair shares for unions in support of both unions and a compromise in understanding the long term effect.

Griffin on Right to Work States
As North Carolina is a right-to-work state and as an employer, I see both sides of the issue and I think both can work together.  Employees are what makes the whole process work.  My company philosophy is 1) what’s good for the community; 2) what’s good for the environment and thirdly, what’s good for our company.”

On Citizens United
I asked Griffin if he would want to repeal Citizens Unitedhe emphatically answered yes.  “The democracy we have is one person one vote—the money in politics now can drown out a person’s vote.”

Griffin on a minimum wage as a CPI index
“We have to look at how it would affect the whole country.  If we index the wage to the CPI (consumer price index) we would eliminate the need to have to adjust it over and over again.” [see Griffin’s complete statement on his website issues page here]

Griffin on campaign finance reform
Kevin Griffin is supportive on campaign finance reform.  “If corporations are people then they should be held to the same standard as an individual private donor, which means they should only be able to max out as an individual would be maxed out.”

Griffin on Iran and the nuclear deal
Iran nuclear deal framework:The Iran nuclear deal framework was a preliminary framework agreement reached between the Islamic Republic of Iran and a group of world powers: the P5+1 (the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council–the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China plus Germany), plus the European Union. 

“I believe gist of it is great if it denies Iran nuclear proliferation.  I would want to get more information on how we are able to know for sure they have given up their nuclear program.  The more appropriate way to implement the deal is to make sure we get all the information of what they are doing.”

Griffin on TPP
“I think we rushed into it.  I grew up during NAFTA and I saw North Carolina textiles move out of NC to other countries.  So, we need proper controls.  I don’t think one agreement is adequate to protect the United States.”

Griffin on Israel
“I believe Israel is a vital partner with us in the Middle East and for that reason it needs to be highly prized.  We must treat them as a vital and valuable alley.  It is a Sovereign nation and has a right to protect itself.”

Griffin on Common Core
“Both of my parents were teachers.  They got out of it when they had to send their kids to college.  Education needs to be in the control of the educators.  Common Core pulls the freedom of teaching away from the teacher.  Testing is not teaching, and it never has been.  I do not think Common Core is a good implementation.”

Griffin believes in having conversations and in transparency.  All the questionnaires he’s answered are on his website. [click here]

About Deborah Ross and the DSCC endorsement
“I believe transparency is one of her failings.  We don’t know where she stands on Senatorial issues that relate to the national setting.  I’ve heard her speak three or four times now, and I can’t tell you what she’s fighting for.”

But, Kevin Griffin does know what he’s fighting for: he is fighting for North Carolina, healthcare, jobs and education just to name a few issues.

With all the media hype and with the NCDP working behind the scenes to support another candidate—it would be somewhat easy for Griffin to be lost in the mix.

I encourage everyone to take the time to look at his website at
kevin griffin logo.jpg http://gowithgriffin.org/

As I’ve said before, you can’t continue to elect the same politicians or types of politicians and then expect a different result.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in 2016, ACA, Affordable Care Act, Candidate Interviews, Connections with George Fisher, Debra Ross, Economics, Election Cycles, Good Fathers, Kevin Griffin for US Senate, Media, NC Politics, NC Senate Race, NC Unemployment, NCDP, North Carolilna Politics, North Carolina, North Carolina Democratic Party, North Carolina Senate Race, Obamacare, politics, Richard Burr, Syria, The Economy, Voters in Pain, Washington DC | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Candidates seeking endorsement paid thousands to young Democrats

It seems Will Rogers had it right.

“I’m not a member of any organized political party,” he famously said. “I am a Democrat.”

And he wasn’t even talking about Alabama. Where even the young Democrats are at each other’s throats. For good reason.

Thursday night the executive board of the Alabama Young Democrats voted to suspend the Jefferson County Young Democrats chapter on assorted charges related to endorsing candidates in the primary. A big complaint was “the appearance of impropriety.”

Because it really does appear propriety took a bag of money and lit out for the hills.

Candidates who paid thousands of dollars to officers of the Jefferson County Young Democrats received the group’s endorsement, prompting cries of pay to play. But we’ll get to that, because it is complicated.

It started last week – I wrote about parts of it a couple of days ago – when Jefferson County Young Democrats President Le’Darius Hilliard announced endorsements. Hours later the state organization declared the endorsements invalid because the Young Democrats’ constitution bans endorsements for the primaries.

But it got nasty.

[Read more here]

Posted in Connections with George Fisher | 1 Comment

Chilean Social Groups to Protest Monsanto, Anti-Democratic TPP

Citizen opposition to the signing of the TPP will take place throughout the region, with joint mobilizations taking place in Peru and Argentina.

Leaders and representatives from Chilean social movements will stage mass protests on Friday against the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, which they argue is being imposed through anti-democratic means and solely in favor of the interests of multinational corporations.

“We believe that these protests are essential in exerting pressure and bringing to light the trade negotiations that have been carried out behind closed doors between politicians and corporations, without democratic participation,” according to the press release issued by the protest organizers.

The demonstrations take place as President Michelle Bachelet is expected to sign the controversial trade agreement on Feb. 4, which will then be sent on to the Chilean parliament for final approval.

RELATED: TPP Dooms World to Climate Crisis, Says Report

Spokesperson for the Ecological Collective Patricia Nuñez added that the objective of Friday’s protests will be to inform Chilean lawmakers of the deal’s potential ramifications.

Nuñez warned that if approved the deal would violate the country’s national sovereignty by allowing private corporations such as Monsanto to patent seeds they discover, develop or modify and require small-scale farmers to pay those companies for the right to use similar seeds.

Activists argue that the TPP agreement will introduce aspects of a controversial Agriculture bill, which was suspended by President Bachelet following strong public pressure over concerns that it would have violated food sovereignty and biodiversity.

[read more here]

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Blythe Haynes is Writing a Book Please Support

 

blythe hayes book

  • It’s not only a design book.
  • Know the ends and outs of what builders charge and why.
  • Understand what contractors actually do and what they’re responsible for.
  • Is it economically feasible to renovate your house or sell it as is or wait?
  • How to tell if a contractor is lowballing you only to jack the price psf later.
  • How to get the best estimates.
  • Know and understand the buzz words that can save you tons of money.
  • Who’s responsible when someone makes a mistake?
  • The book will be filled with lots of mishaps and horrors stories so you don’t have go through the same thing.
  • Anyone looking to buy, renovate or build a house of any size would benefit from reading this book. 
  • Please help contribute to make this book possible. Click on the house above.

    Hi,  as many of you know I’ve been designing homes for over 33 years and have a body of work that I would like to publish.  I believe that my qualifications gives me the ability to write this in a non biased way that so many other books have been.

    My plan is to write a book on the process of building your dream home, whether small or large.  Starting with the first stage all the way to the finished project.

    From gathering your ideas,  picking a designer, actually designing the home,  keeping it within budget.  To bidding and negotiation with contractors to breaking ground and the process of actual construction.

    This book will include a realistic look at the design and Construction industry.  How to stay in budget and also end up with the home you really want.  It will include alternative construction types and their long term value.

    I will include photographic examples, charts, time lines and other visual aids to assist the home owner with valuable information about the industry.

    I will include projects I’ve done in the past, but will not reveal their name without prior consent.

    Please help me make this valuable asset to home Design and Construction a reality.

    Thankfully,

    Blythe  Haynes

    You can check out my Facebook page, BSH Design,  Blythe Haynes.  Or my website blythehaynes.com

  • To fund click here: https://www.gofundme.com/ra3b3735

 

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